Chapter 321 The Noose of the Threefold Field
Chapter 321 The Noose of the Threefold Field
(Two chapters today too~)
October 3rd. 7:11 AM.
Saionji Residence, Japanese-style room.
NHK's morning news footage switched from Berlin back to Tokyo.
To celebrate German reunification, the Brandenburg Gate was packed with cheering crowds—Germans waving the black, red, and gold tricolor flag, young people climbing the walls, and couples kissing in front of the cameras.
Flags, fireworks, beer bottles—everything was waving overhead. A young man in a denim jacket, perched on his companion's shoulders, waved a black, red, and gold Union flag, his mouth agape as he shouted something. But his voice was drowned out by cheers and church bells, becoming a muffled cacophony.
Shuichi held the bowl of miso soup, his gaze fixed on the television screen.
"The Berlin Wall fell less than a year ago, and now we're really unified," he remarked with a touch of melancholy. "When East and West Germany were divided, who could have imagined this day would come?"
Forty-five years. From the Potsdam Conference to today, Germany, torn in two by the Iron Curtain, was finally stitched back together on October 3, 1990.
Satsuki sat opposite him. A long platter of grilled salmon was placed in front of her, next to which were four pieces of tamagoyaki, a small dish of pickles, and a bowl full of white rice.
She picked up a piece of tamagoyaki with her chopsticks, put it in her mouth, and chewed it twice.
From the moment she sat down, her eyes were glued to the scrolling financial data bar in the bottom right corner of the screen.
The scrolling chart on NHK's financial channel shows the Nikkei 225 opening down 302 points.
Satsuki swallowed the tamagoyaki. She tapped her chopsticks lightly on the rim of the bowl, shaking off the bits of egg clinging to the tips.
38, 950.20.
This is the closing price of the Nikkei 225 index on the first trading day of the year. This number, which she personally pushed up, represents the peak of the bubble, the highest building block in the entire post-war economic miracle of Japan.
Now, nine months have passed.
It fell from 38,950 to the 22,000 range.
The decline was 43 percent.
Seventeen trillion yen in market value has evaporated in the past 274 days.
And on her timeline of memory—
This is just the beginning.
The scene changed.
The Brandenburg Gate disappears. The scene then shifts to the press conference venue at the Bank of Japan headquarters.
Behind the long table at the press conference, a person sat in front of a microphone.
Sixty-six-year-old Yasushi Mieno's hair was already gray, neatly combed back. He wore a dark gray suit with a dark red striped tie. His facial expression always seemed to be somewhere between "serious" and "expressionless".
"Heisei no Ghost Ping".
This is the nickname the media gave him. It comes from Hasegawa Heizo, the Edo-period official in charge of cracking down on thieves and bandits with an iron fist.
It means that this person is ruthless and doesn't show any mercy.
As the saying goes, "There are no wrong nicknames," and Yasushi Mieno has perfectly demonstrated this with his actions.
"The Bank of Japan will continue to adhere to its moderately tight monetary policy. Maintaining price stability is the central bank's primary responsibility..."
Satsuki picked up a piece of pickled food and put it in her mouth. The sour and salty taste of the eggplant spread across her tongue. As she chewed, she mentally dissected Mieno's austerity policies into a complete chain of transmission.
Five interest rate hikes. The fixed rate rose from 2.5 percent to 6.0 percent.
The first time was in May 1989. The second time was in October of the same year. Both were the work of former president Satoshi Sumida.
December 25, 1989 – 4.25%. Christmas Day. The third cut.
March 1990 – 5.25%. Spring Equinox. Fourth cut.
August 1990 – 6.0%. The fifth cut.
The next three slashes were all from Mieno.
One stab every four months. This man, single-handedly, is almost killing Japan.
Adding to this is the total amount limit on real estate financing introduced by the Ministry of Finance in March of this year—an administrative order that shut down new bank loans to the real estate sector.
Double-stranded rope.
One cord was tied around the neck, and the other around the waist.
Satsuki mentally broke the end of the noose into three layers.
The first layer—the banking sector. New loans are frozen. Existing loans are not renewed upon maturity. The banks in charge will then reassess the assets of each client company, generally downgrading their credit ratings by two to three levels. Meanwhile, the banks' own non-performing loan portfolio is expanding on a quarterly basis.
The second layer – the corporate side. Cash flow disruption. Especially for asset-heavy companies. Their balance sheets are piled high with land and equipment purchased at inflated prices during the bubble period, while interest expenses on the liability side are rapidly increasing with rising interest rates.
With each interest rate hike, a number of companies see their financial leverage shift from "affordable" to "unbearable." The order in which this breakdown occurs is largely predictable—first, real estate developers with the highest reliance on financing, then construction companies and building material manufacturers that supply them, and finally, the entire manufacturing supply chain is affected.
The third layer—and the most important one for Saionji—is the asset side.
What might be revealed in the wreckage after a company goes bankrupt?
Equipment. Patents. Technical team. Customer relationships. Supply chain nodes.
These components, while the company is alive, are embedded in a complete business ecosystem, and no amount of money can buy them. But once the company collapses, these parts, like gears scattered from a broken clock, become cheap. Yet their actual value remains unchanged; they're just waiting to be picked up by someone else.
The noose in Mieno is also the fishing net of Saionji.
Satsuki put the last piece of grilled salmon into her mouth. The oil from the fish burst between her teeth, enveloped by the sweetness of the white rice, and she swallowed it.
She put down her chopsticks.
Thank you for your hospitality.
On television, Yasushi Mieno was answering reporters' questions. His lips were moving, but Satsuki no longer needed to hear what he had to say.
She knew better than the man what was going to happen next.
……
9:40 a.m.
study.
Endo has arrived.
He was wearing a dark gray three-piece suit today, and his gold-rimmed glasses were spotless. He carried a briefcase in his left hand and a brown paper folder in his right.
Satsuki sat behind her desk. Shuichi sat in a leather chair to the side, his lap resting on today's Nikkei newspaper.
"Young Miss. Master of the Family."
"sit."
Endo sat down in the armchair opposite the desk. He placed his briefcase at his feet and a manila folder on his lap.
"The first one." He opened the folder and pulled out the first report.
"In the past two weeks, the number of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Kanto region that have either gone bankrupt or applied for negotiations has reached fourteen."
Endo handed the list to the table. Satsuki took it, placing a pencil between her index and middle fingers.
Fourteen companies. Fourteen names. Arranged vertically in a row. Each name is followed by three sets of data—the industry, total liabilities, and the bank that administers it.
"Report to each company individually," Satsuki said calmly. "Evaluate each company based on three aspects: technological barriers, supply chain compatibility, and debt cleanliness. Just give verbal reports; no need to read from a script."
Endo closed the folder and placed it on the chair next to his knees. His gaze met Satsuki's.
"Yes."
"The first company is Takada Real Estate Co., Ltd. Located in Ikebukuro, it specializes in pure residential development. There are zero technological barriers and zero supply chain compatibility. Its liabilities amount to 4.2 billion yen, of which 2.7 billion yen is a guaranteed loan from Sanwa Bank, and the remaining 1.5 billion yen is a private placement bond issued to Sumitomo Trust. The debt structure is quite complex, with cross-guarantees—"
"No, not here. Next one."
Endo didn't pause. "The second one. Shinagawa. Commercial real estate holding company. Zero technological barriers—"
"No, we won't accept it."
"The third company. Real estate development. Chiyoda Ward. Office building development—"
"No, we won't accept it."
Satsuki didn't even let Endo finish speaking before drawing three horizontal lines on the list with a pencil. The three were pure real estate companies.
Shuichi listened silently in the leather chair beside him. He held the teacup in his hand, but didn't drink.
Endo continued.
The fourth company is in food processing. The technological barriers are low. We will not accept them.
The fifth company is a building materials wholesaler. The match is acceptable, but the debt involves a second mortgage related to the Yakuza. Satsuki's pencil touched the words "Yakuza." She wouldn't touch it.
The sixth company is a printing factory. Their equipment is outdated. They won't hire them.
The seventh one.
Endo slowed down his speech.
Yodoba Precision Industry Co., Ltd. Headquartered in Chuo-ku, Kobe City. Specializes in the manufacture of precision valves and fittings. Established for 42 years.
He pulled a supplementary document from the side pocket of his briefcase and turned to the second page.
"The technological barriers are extremely high. This company ranks among the top five precision valve manufacturers in Japan. Its core competitiveness lies mainly in the field of corrosion-resistant alloy valves, and it holds three valid invention patents. Two of them involve precision casting processes for nickel-based alloys, and the other is a plasma spraying technology for valve seat sealing surfaces. These three patents are currently pledged, with Mitsui Trust Bank as the pledgee."
Satsuki's pencil tip hovered above the paper. It didn't fall.
"Supply chain compatibility." Endo turned to the third page. "The company's product line covers industrial valves with diameters from DN15 to DN600, suitable for highly corrosive pipeline environments such as petrochemical, fine chemical, and pharmaceutical industries."
He looked up and met Satsuki's gaze.
"Matching with the fine chemical production lines planned for the B-07 industrial park—"
"I understand." Satsuki's pencil fell to the ground. She drew a circle next to the four characters "Yodoba Precision". The circle was drawn heavily, and the lead left a dark indentation on the paper.
"receive."
Endo nodded. "Regarding debt cleanliness—"
"explain."
"Founder Genichiro Yodoba has been involved in commercial real estate development in Kobe Port Island since 1986. He used the land and factory buildings of Precision Industries as collateral to obtain a loan of 8.7 billion yen from Mitsui Trust Bank for the real estate project. The real estate project was completely halted in June of this year. Mitsui Trust has filed an application for enforcement of the security interest with the Kobe District Court, and the auction process is expected to begin in mid-November."
Endo closed the documents.
"Currently, Yodoba Precision has 120 registered employees. Among them, there are 87 production line technicians, 14 in the R&D department, and 19 in administration. As of the 1st of this month, all employees' salaries have been in arrears for one and a half months. But—"
He emphasized his words.
"The factory is still operating, and orders are booked until February next year. The skilled workforce is currently complete, and there have been no resignations."
Satsuki added two more words next to the circle on her pencil: "All collected".
"Buy off the debt before the auction." Her voice was soft. "Go directly to Mitsui Trust. The three pledged patents are the core; we can't let them be auctioned off publicly."
"clear."
"And those 120 people, don't lay them off. Remember to pay their back salaries in full."
Endo wrote this sentence into his notebook.
Shuichi nodded slightly in the leather chair. It was a very small gesture, but Endo caught it out of the corner of his eye.
Satsuki listened quickly to the eighth to eleventh houses. Two houses were marked with an "X", and two were marked with a horizontal line.
The twelfth.
"Midai Seiko Co., Ltd. Omiya City, Saitama Prefecture. Electronic component packaging."
Satsuki stopped using her pencil.
"Explain in more detail."
Endo pulled out another supplementary document.
"Founder Yukio Midai started his business in 1972. His main business was leadframe packaging and testing of IC chips. At its peak, the company had annual revenue of 4.6 billion yen and 230 employees. Starting in 1988, he ventured into apartment development projects in Urawa City, securing loans of 3.1 billion yen. The apartment project was halted this April. On September 22nd, he filed for a settlement with the Urawa District Court."
"What about technological barriers?"
"Packaging technology itself has a moderate barrier to entry. But—" Endo paused for a second, "the factory has a core team of packaging technicians, twenty people. Their average years of experience are thirteen. Six of them hold senior packaging technician certifications from the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ)."
He closed the document and looked at Satsuki.
"These twenty people are still on standby at the factory. Their wages have been two months overdue, but they haven't left yet."
Satsuki's pencil tip rested on the paper. It didn't move.
I haven't been paid for two months. And the job hasn't been done yet.
In the torrent of a bursting bubble, in a small factory on the verge of bankruptcy, twenty technicians chose to stay and wait. Wait for what?
Waiting for something they themselves might not be able to explain clearly.
Perhaps it's an obsession with this craft, or perhaps it's simply a lack of knowledge about where to go after leaving.
But whatever the reason—the person is still alive.
People are more important than equipment; this is one of Satsuki's core beliefs.
A stamping press can be bought again, and an injection molding machine can be reassembled. But a skilled packaging technician with an average of thirteen years of experience is trained on an assembly line. The muscle memory of every hand, the force control of every wire bonding, the fine-tuning of the pupil when aligning each chip—these things cannot be written in the instruction manual.
Satsuki drew a second circle on the list.
"Accept. The entire technician team will be retained. Salaries will be paid in full."
She paused for a moment.
"Also, have SIS check on the family situations of these twenty people. Those with children in school, those with elderly people needing care—take care of their worries first. Only when people are at ease can we focus on our work."
Endo nodded and turned a page in his notebook.
Xiuyi held his teacup but didn't drink from it. Sometime later, the steam from the rim of the cup had completely dissipated.
Two companies remain. The thirteenth and fourteenth.
Satsuki wrote two words next to each of the two names in her pencil: "Look again."
"The main banks governing these two banks are Taiyo Kobe and Kyowa Saitama, respectively." She placed her pencil on the table and leaned back in her chair. "Both banks' capital adequacy ratios are near the warning line. Mieno will be under pressure until the end of the year—"
She paused for a moment.
"It will be tightened again."
Xiu's hand, which was holding a teacup, froze in mid-air.
"Another rate hike?" He frowned. "It's already six percentage points, and they want to raise it again?"
"It doesn't necessarily mean an interest rate hike." Satsuki's gaze fell on the list on the table. "It could also be increased window guidance or tightening of base money through open market operations. The form doesn't matter. The result is the same—Sun Kobe and Kyowa Saitama won't be able to hold on, and debt recovery procedures will definitely be initiated against these two companies before the end of the year."
She drew a line under the words "look again" with a pencil.
"By then, the price will have slid from 'peace' to 'bankruptcy,' and the price can drop by at least another 40%. Taking action then will be even cheaper."
Endo wrote down this judgment word for word in his notebook.
Shuichi placed the teacup back on the armrest. He didn't refill the tea, which had gone cold.
He glanced at his daughter.
Satsuki's tone was flat, her expression calm. When she said "I'll do it again," it was as if she were saying "It will rain tomorrow."
He still can't figure out where his daughter got the information.
Could it be inference based on existing information? He couldn't understand it at all.
Shuichi shifted his gaze from his daughter to the maple tree in the courtyard outside the window.
The leaves have turned mostly red, like a burning fire.
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